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Fletcher St. Jean says regional aviation is not collapsing, but being rebuilt around Antigua, Barbados and Sint Maarten

By Fletcher St. Jean, MBA — Finance and Business Strategist | Advisor

The Caribbean aviation market is entering one of its most important periods of realignment in recent history, with major route cuts by Caribbean Airlines, the liquidation of two regional carriers, the rise of three emerging aviation hubs, and a new interline agreement between LIAT 2020 and Air Caraïbes reshaping the future of regional travel.

On May 29, 2026, LIAT 2020 and Air Caraïbes announced an interline agreement allowing passengers to travel across both carriers’ networks on a single ticket with through-checked baggage. The agreement takes effect on June 1, 2026 — the same day Caribbean Airlines withdraws from Dominica, St. Kitts and the Ogle-Suriname market, while reducing service to Martinique and Guadeloupe.

According to Fletcher St. Jean, MBA, Finance and Business Strategist, the timing reflects a deeper structural shift across Caribbean aviation.

“This is not a story of collapse,” St. Jean argues in Part Three of his regional aviation commentary series. “It is a story of rebuilding around three emerging hubs — Antigua, Barbados and Sint Maarten.”

St. Jean notes that Caribbean Airlines has now made three rounds of network adjustments in eight months, reportedly linked to approximately US$18.84 million in combined route losses disclosed by Trinidad and Tobago Transport and Civil Aviation Minister Eli Zakour in the Senate on May 22, 2026.

The first adjustment came in November 2025, when the Jamaica-Fort Lauderdale route was cut after reported losses of US$7.2 million. A second round followed in January 2026 with the withdrawal from the Trinidad-Puerto Rico route, reportedly linked to US$4.92 million in losses. The third round, effective June 1, 2026, affects six markets, including Dominica, St. Kitts, Ogle-Suriname, Martinique and Guadeloupe.

St. Jean says the pattern is clear: Caribbean Airlines is retreating from routes that may not fit its current cost structure, while smaller and more agile regional carriers are moving to fill the space.

Rather than placing Dominica, St. Kitts and the Guyana-Suriname corridor in a weak position, he argues the current moment gives those markets negotiating leverage. LIAT 2020, WinAir and InterCaribbean Airways are all positioning themselves to serve parts of the market left open by Caribbean Airlines.

For St. Kitts and Nevis, the shift could present a major opportunity. With LIAT 2020 and WinAir both showing interest in regional connectivity and the Federation’s tourism sector continuing to grow, St. Jean suggests the country should use the moment to negotiate strong long-term air-service arrangements, including frequency commitments, fare stability, baggage agreements, tourism targets and route sustainability provisions.

The analysis identifies Antigua, Barbados and Sint Maarten as the three key emerging aviation hubs.

Antigua, St. Jean argues, is especially well positioned. V.C. Bird International Airport is one of the most capable airports in the Eastern Caribbean, LIAT 2020 is headquartered there, and the Air Caraïbes interline agreement creates a stronger bridge between the English-speaking Caribbean, the French Caribbean and Paris-Orly.

Barbados is also gaining strength through InterCaribbean Airways’ hub development, while Sint Maarten continues to expand through WinAir and its partnership with Contour Airlines, creating additional onward connections through San Juan and the United States mainland.

However, St. Jean warns that governments must not leave the future of regional aviation entirely to carriers and commercial agreements. He argues that while airlines are building the network, governments must build the framework.

A central issue remains the high cost of intra-Caribbean travel. St. Jean points to the heavy tax and fee burden on regional tickets, noting that in some cases government-imposed taxes, airport fees and landing charges can represent a major portion of the total ticket price. He says meaningful reform of the regional tax structure could improve route profitability and make intra-Caribbean travel more affordable.

According to his analysis, even a partial reduction in taxes and charges could help several regional routes become more commercially viable. A deeper reduction, he suggests, could significantly improve profitability across the surviving regional carriers.

St. Jean’s wider conclusion is that the Caribbean now has a limited window to shape the next decade of regional connectivity. The carriers are already repositioning. Airports are already competing. Commercial agreements are already being signed.

The question, he says, is whether member states will act with the same urgency.

“This is solvable work,” St. Jean states, pointing to existing regional institutions such as ECCAA, CARICOM, the Caribbean Development Bank, the OECS Economic Union and broader regional financing platforms.

He argues that what is needed now is data-driven route analysis, carrier-by-carrier financial modeling, airport strategy and coordinated government action.

The next twelve to eighteen months, he says, will determine whether Caribbean governments define the next decade of regional aviation — or inherit decisions made for them by airlines and markets.

About the Author

Fletcher St. Jean, MBA, is a Finance and Business Strategist and Advisor who advises Caribbean banks, regional governments and private sector partners on financial, operational and strategic positioning. He served as Managing Director of 1st National Bank St. Lucia Limited, becoming the first non-St. Lucian citizen to lead the 85-year-old institution. He previously held executive roles at Citigroup, served as President of the Bankers Association of St. Lucia, and is a current participant in the Wharton Executive Leadership Program. He is the author of an ongoing regional analytical series covering ECCU and CARICOM finance, aviation and economic integration.