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In a stark contrast to its previous economic performance between 2018 and 2022, St. Kitts and Nevis has seen a dramatic decline in its economic growth, now ranking as the lowest on average in the Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS). The country’s projected economic growth rate for 2025 is a modest 2.7%, a sharp fall from the impressive 10.2% growth rate predicted for 2022 under the Dr. Hon. Timothy Harris-led Team Unity government.

In 2024, under the leadership of Prime Minister Dr. Terrance Drew and his Labour administration, the country currently sits with the lowest growth rate in the OECS, at just 3.0%. The outlook for 2025 shows further decline, with projections of only 2.7%, placing the nation at the bottom of the OECS for economic growth over the last three years.

Between 2019 and 2022, St. Kitts and Nevis stood at the pinnacle of economic growth within the OECS, driven by strong capital projects such as the 2nd Cruise Pier, the Massive Island Main Road Rehabilitation Project, the Old Road Bay Project, The East and West Ferry and Bus Terminals among others and social assistance programs such as the Poverty Alleviation Program (PAP). These initiatives, along with the thriving Citizenship by Investment (CBI) program, were key drivers of economic growth. However, since then, there has been a significant reduction or total disappearance of any capital projects and the total dismantling of critical social programs.

The collapse of the CBI program has been a particularly damaging factor. The program, once a robust contributor to the national economy, has suffered from ill-advised changes to its rules and the controversial appointment of a convicted fraudster as the public face of the initiative. This misstep, coupled with a RICO lawsuit filed by the benefactor against the programme , has deterred potential investors, leading to a dramatic drop in application volumes.

In comparison to its OECS counterparts, St. Kitts and Nevis’ economic growth forecast paints a concerning picture:

Antigua and Barbuda: Growth is projected to rise to 4.8% in 2024, before slightly falling to 2.4% in 2025.

Dominica: The island is expected to maintain steady growth, with a slight drop from 4.7% in 2023 to 4.6% in 2024.

Grenada: Growth is projected at 4.1% for 2024, declining to 3.7% in 2025.

Saint Lucia: From a 2024 growth rate of 3.4%, projections indicate a dip to 2.0% in 2025.

St. Kitts and Nevis’ position at the bottom of the table reflects the broader issues within the country’s economy, particularly the absence of major capital projects and the declining influence of the CBI program. With no significant drivers to spur economic activity, the country faces an uphill battle to regain its former economic momentum. The current administration’s handling of these issues will be crucial in determining whether the nation can recover from its fall and return to a path of sustainable growth.