Portia Simpson Miller

KINGSTON, Jamaica, Feb 08 2016 – With 17 days left before Jamaicans go to the polls, two research teams from the University of the West Indies, using different methods, have projected that the People’s National Party (PNP) will be back in power when the votes are counted.

Using the CHAMPSKNOW system of forecasting, lecturer in political psychology Dr Christopher Charles, and Gleasia Reid, an MPhil/PhD student in political science, projected that the PNP has a 60 percent chance of winning the election and will capture 40 seats while the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) will come out with 23 seats.

Andrew Holness

In the meantime, social anthropologist Dr Herbert Gayle and his team, using integrated methodology, with the assistance of qualitative and historical material, have given the PNP 36 seats, the JLP 18, with the remaining nine seats still up for grabs.

According to Charles, his team used political forecasting, which is not the same as political polling.

The two parties have engaged in extensive campaigning in the past week, pulling massive crowds to major meetings across the island.

Under the rallying cry “Step up The Progress”, the PNP has expressed confidence that it will be elected to form the government when the votes are counted. The JLP, which has vowed to lead Jamaica from “Poverty to Prosperity”, has also expressed confidence that voters will elect it to form the government.