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BASSETERRE, ST. KITTS — Against the backdrop of sharply reduced Citizenship by Investment revenues, sluggish economic growth and an increasingly difficult fiscal outlook, Prime Minister Dr. Terrance Drew has declared that his government’s Sustainable Island State Agenda is positioning St. Kitts and Nevis for a stronger and more resilient future.

Speaking on the July 16 edition of The Roundtable, Dr. Drew argued that his administration’s decision to reduce the Federation’s dependence on the CBI Programme was not only deliberate—but has now been vindicated.

“We made the decision from the beginning that we have to bring the economy to a point where it does not have to rely on the CBI,” the prime minister said.

Dr. Drew maintained that the transition towards a diversified economy—built around renewable energy, agriculture, tourism, construction, healthcare, technology and other productive sectors—offers the country its best protection against international pressure and volatility surrounding the CBI industry.

However, the prime minister’s confident declaration comes amid sobering warnings from the International Monetary Fund.

The IMF reported that economic growth slowed to just 1.5 percent in 2025 and is projected to reach only 2 percent in 2026. The Fund also warned that the country’s fiscal deficit widened to a staggering 11.7 percent of GDP in 2025 as CBI revenues declined further.

Public debt, according to the IMF, is projected to rise from 58.4 percent of GDP in 2025 to 64 percent in 2026—moving beyond the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union’s regional benchmark. Government deposits are also projected to fall dramatically, from approximately 20.8 percent of GDP in 2023 to just 3 percent in 2026.

The IMF further warned that persistently low CBI revenues could keep fiscal deficits elevated over the medium term, weaken the government’s financial buffers and limit its ability to respond to external shocks or fund major development needs.

The scale of the CBI collapse is reflected in the IMF’s own figures. CBI fees represented approximately 22.2 percent of GDP in 2023, but plunged to 8.6 percent in 2024 and an estimated 5.3 percent in 2025. The figure is projected at 6 percent for 2026.

Dr. Drew nevertheless presented the dramatic reduction in CBI’s economic contribution as evidence that the country is moving away from dangerous overdependence.

According to the prime minister, CBI’s contribution has fallen from approximately 22 percent of GDP to below 10 percent and is expected to decline further as the Sustainable Island State Agenda matures.

“The revenues from CBI are critically important, but we recognise that we had to set up an economy that could survive without CBI,” Dr. Drew stated.

The central question now is whether the new sectors being promoted under SISA can grow quickly enough to replace the hundreds of millions of dollars once generated by the passport programme.

The IMF has acknowledged potential growth from construction, agriculture, renewable energy and continued tourism expansion. However, it has also called for urgent fiscal consolidation, expenditure restraint, stronger tax collection, reforms to the Social Security Fund and decisive action to address vulnerabilities within public financial institutions.

For the Drew administration, SISA is being promoted as the Federation’s bridge from CBI dependence to economic sustainability.

For citizens facing rising costs, limited opportunities and uncertainty over the country’s largest revenue-generating programme, however, the ultimate test will not be the strength of the government’s vision—but whether that vision produces measurable growth, stable employment, stronger public finances and visible improvements in everyday life.

The prime minister has declared that the strategy is working. The coming years will determine whether SISA becomes the economic transformation promised—or whether the collapse in CBI revenues moves faster than the government’s ability to replace them.