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Written by Val Henry for Miyvue.com

Basseterre, St. Kitts, Monday 7th May, 2013, (MiyVue.com) – Some opposition politicians are claiming that the results of the next elections in St. Kitts and Nevis could deliver a massive defeat for the ruling Labour Government of Prime Minister Dr. Denzil Douglas. They argue that he may be the only Labour candidate left standing (elected) the day after the poll. Whether this would materialize is still to be seen.

However, one thing is certain and that is, the coming election will be the most difficult and divisive one in the post independence history of the country.

The ruling Labour Party of Dr. Denzil Douglas will be trying to secure a fifth straight term, while the opposition People’s Action Movement, (PAM), headed by the Member of Parliament for Sandy Point, Mr. Shawn Richards, will be attempting to return to government after 18 years in the political wilderness.

PAM however has been showing signs of confidence and as they continue their weekly campaign meetings the size of the crowds following their crusade has been steadily growing, with its base supporters beginning to turn out in their numbers. This was quite evident last Thursday in Old Road, Sunday in Cayon and party officials are predicting the same this Thursday in Taylor’s.

PAM too knows what it is like to be in office for a long period. They too held office for four consecutive terms when former Prime Minister Dr. Sir Kennedy Simmonds led the party in government from 1980 to 1995.

They are again hoping that the electorate will repose their confidence in their slate of candidates just as they repeatedly did in 1980, 1984,1989, and 1993. They did not manage to gain that fifth term, just as the current Labour Administration is now seeking to accomplish. Five straight terms is always a difficult challenge.

PAM is also reminiscing on its glorious days at the polls, such as in 1984 and 1989 when they defeated the Labour Party (in St. Kitts), 6 seats to two. In those elections only the safe or garrison seats of St. Paul’s and West Basseterre were retained by Labour as PAM swept East Basseterre, Central Basseterre, Old Road, (constituency Number 4), Sandy Point, Constituencies Number Seven and Number Eight.

This is why PAM’s leader Shawn Richards has stated that he rejects the notion, promulgated by Labour, that PAM has “always needed to form a coalition to get into government”.

Officials in the party say, that is why one can never dismiss the current ambitions of PAM which has committed to expanding its political umbrella to form a unity government with other political parties, and individuals. This unity team is expected to include the Concern Citizens Movement (CCM) in Nevis, which some are arguing could possibly win all three seats on that island. they now hold two and are gunning for the third held by Mr. Patrice Nisbett, who serves in the coalition (Labour/NRP), administration as Minister of Justice. CCM is hoping that Mr. Nisbett’s recent and convincing defeat by a relatively new comer, Alexis Jeffers, in January, during the local island elections, could translate into another defeat, this time in the federal poll. If they are successful, CCM would take three seats into the planned unity government.

Back on the island of St. Kitts, PAM is confident that it will retain its two seats now held for Sandy Point and Cayon/Keys/Conaree, and they also feel that they have great possibilities in Central Basseterre and Old Road (where they have lost only by narrow margins, in the recent polls of 2004 and 2010). The party has attributed the losses in Number Four to what they called massive voter fraud and electoral irregularities. If their predictions play out as expected, it means that PAM could very well walk into the unity government as the major player with five seats.

Both PAM and CCM are teaming up with two former Cabinet Ministers of the Labour Government, Sam Condor and Dr. Timothy Harris, and both gentlemen, according to recent polls, stand a very good chance of winning their constituencies, running as independents. And if they do, it would give them two seats to take into the unity government.

What this means therefore, if this political scenario plays out, is that the Labour Party of Denzil Douglas could lose the election with a massive 10-1 defeat, against the so called Unity Team of PAM/CCM/Condor/Harris.

Some PAM insiders claim that the Prime Minister also recognizes this possibility and is now preparing to have the electoral boundaries changed, to give his party a greater chance at the polls.

Labour however has decided to fight back, as they demonstrated in their recent pre-Labour Day campaign. Much is at stake. PAM has claimed that with the high level of wrong doing in the Administration, the Government is afraid to lose power, and is desperate to hold on at any cost. But there is also the personal hatred that exists between the Prime Minister and his two former colleagues. It also shows its ugly head between PAM and Labour leaders, but the main focus has become that between the “labourites” (Douglas, Harris and Condor).

The exchanges across party lines have already started and will worsen once the elections are announced.

Some of the more sober and seasoned politicians within PAM however have accepted that this election could be easily won, but the party would have to work hard to ensure victory and the leaders cannot expect it to be delivered on a silver platter. For them , the theme of unity seems to be working and they claim that their recent polls have also supported the view, that the people of St. Kitts, in particular, are ready to vote in a unity government.

No one knows when the polls will be called and though Labour appeared, in recent weeks, to have been in election mode, it should also be recognized that the spike in Labour meetings is always on the agenda for the party, close to the annual Labour Day celebrations. The key sign to watch however, is whether the meetings and rallies will continue, post Labour Day. If they do, then it would become clearer that the elections are imminent. Some say as close as July. If the meeting swings suddenly stop, then this could mean that Labour is still buying time to get its house in order, for a poll much later than predicted by the opposition.